And I Told Them I Invented Times New Roman

For those sad enough to keep an eye out for housing related statistics and policy announcements yesterday was an interesting day. Firstly, the BBC released a significant (if not fully comprehensive) briefing on the state of play regarding housing in the UK. Well, for the most part in England as it doesn’t quite account for the divergence in housing policy that has occurred since housing issues were devolved. But it is still pretty decent.

Elsewhere, there was the first MHCLG Questions since the latest Housing Minister arrived in post. Seemingly to coincide with this event, the MHCLG produced a series of tweets boasting of what it has achieved in the last 10yrs. Tweets that are, for reasons I’ll run through in this blog, highly problematic regarding their content.

Nothin’ Proper About Ya Propaganda

The first tweet is innocuous enough on the surface, proclaiming that since 2010 circa 141,000 new social homes have been delivered in England. Given the outright hostility towards this form of sub market rent that has come from the Conservative Party in recent years I was genuinely surprised to see it be the subject of one of the lead tweets. Indeed, it completely ignores the fact that both policy and funding regimes have aggressively sought to shift provision away from this form of housing. Seen as a ‘breeder of Labour voters’ by our former PM and his Chancellor. Perhaps now so many of those who voted Labour have switched to the Tories, this is no longer seen as a bad thing? Time will tell, but it’s an odd one nonetheless.

The full absurdity of this boast becomes apparent when you look at the both the long-term trends in the provision of additional affordable homes and the consequences of the current funding programme. Because although the number of additional Social Rent homes has been falling steadily since a high point in 95/96, it really fell off a cliff after the Coalition Government came into power.

Chart 1: Additional Affordable Homes Provided by Type of Scheme 1991-2018

Source MHCLG (2020) Live Tables 1009: note I’ve collated London Affordable rent into the overall Affordable Rent figures.

Why is this important? Because as well as shifting funding away from Social Rent, successive Governments over the past 10 years have breathed new life into Thatcher’s most successful policy, Right to Buy. And thanks to that God-awful initiative we’re losing social sector homes at an alarming rate. With an average of 16,000 homes per year being lost from the sector due to Right to Buy since its revival in 2012. Homes that are simply not being replaced. So, whilst 141,000 additional Social Rent Homes may have been delivered, for more or less the same time period (March 11 to March 18) 138,000 have been sold out of the sector. The majority, though not all, lost via Right to Buy. This, among many other reasons, is why we have such an appalling high level of homelessness – Statutory Homelessness has increased by 36% since 2010. Despite what our (now former) Chancellor of the Exchequer mis-remembers during a nationally broadcast interview.

Chart 2: Number of homes sold from the social sector in England 2009 - 18

Source: ONS (2019) Comparing affordable housing in the UK: April 2008 to March 2018.

If you’re still unsure on how far the pendulum has swung away from Social Rent as a type of housing supported by our Governments of recent years, just take the Shared Ownership and Affordable Homes Programme. A funding regime that covers the years 2016 – 2021. As Inside Housing has already noted, just 4% (3,583 homes out of 90,323) within this programme have been designated for Social Rent. The rest being Affordable Rent (52%) and Shared Ownership (44%). So needless to say, bit of a swing and miss on Tweet number 1.

Your Revolution is a Joke

Next on the list was the borderline impressive statement that over 240,000 homes were delivered in 2018-19. Again, this is a fair enough statement in and of itself. The main issue with it being that housing created via Permitted Development Rights and Help to Buy are included in those figures. The former criticised for being a means by which to ‘warehouse poverty’, whilst the latter has been described as akin to pouring petrol on a bonfire by the Adam Smith Institute, not an institution I tend to agree with, but they’re right on this.

Of the 240,000 some 29,000 homes have come from a change of use, of that around 12,000 from former offices. Serious doubts are being raised about the suitability of people living in this form of housing long term, as well as concerns over the lack of planning oversight. Panorama’s investigation into one PDR site being used as temporary accommodation for the homeless was a prime example of how appalling these office conversions can be, and whilst the Government has said it will review their use, post re-election little has been forthcoming in relation to these ‘rabbit hutches’. Not exactly a policy I’d boast about, even if they are buried within a broader set of figures.

The situation isn’t a whole lot rosier on Help to Buy. Because although 190,000 homes have been delivered by the initiative, significant objections have been raised around the value for money to taxpayers. Neither the National Audit Office in its June 2019 report nor the Commons Select Committee in its September 2019 report have been overwhelmingly in favour of the scheme (though the NAO is a bit more positive in its assessment). The latter in particular casting doubt on whether Help to Buy has either a) achieved its stated aims or b) proved to be value for money.

By 2023 £23billion will have been tied up into the scheme, compared to £9billion more broadly in the Affordable Homes Programme. But far from extending home ownership to those who otherwise might have not been able to buy, it’s largely helped those already in a position to do so. Three fifths of those who have used Help to Buy could have bought without it, whilst 20% of those who have used the scheme weren’t first time buyers. Not exactly figures to jump up and down for joy on. And although a comparative boost in homes has been seen thanks in part to the money pumped into Help to Buy it’s not helping those it needs to. Which, quite frankly, is largely the story of housing policy of the last 10 years.

Never Fight a Man with a Perm

Let’s be clear, Twitter is not the medium for sharing quick facts on housing. It is such a deep and broad topic that figures in isolation can be misleading – intentionally or otherwise. I could have also gone into detail on housing waiting lists and a couple of the other tweets from the MHCLG but you’ve got to draw the line somewhere.

However, I’d always offer a free piece of advice to people who have spent a decade making a situation worse. Don’t try and use figures that (with a modicum of effort) highlight how bad a job you’ve done, to make you look good. Housing Policy in the UK, and especially in England, has been in a pretty dark place in recent years. 2020 doesn’t look like it’ll be much better, though I hope that might change.

In the meantime, it is necessary to continue to highlight bad policy and its consequences. Because no matter how much glitter is being thrown on the turd that is our current approach to housing policy, it is still a turd.